For now - specifically, for one month - the Trump administrations 25-percent tariffs on products entering the U.S. from Canada and Mexico exclude automotive products.
Gamesmanship aside, however, its clear that 25-percent tariffs would have a major impact on automotive prices, production, jobs - in short, on the entire supply chain.
Its also clear that elected Republicans have hearing it from all sides since the Trump administration announced the tariffs, because everyone agrees their effects will be devastating in the long term.
Yesterday, a Pennsylvania car dealer gave Fox News a concrete example of a situation that could arise if the tariffs are imposed on the automotive sector.
David Kelleher, owner of David Auto Group and a Chrysler Dodge Jeep and Ram dealer, related that a customer who had ordered a Ram had just changed his mind, not surprising given that the price of the truck he wanted was going to jump from $80,000 to $100,000 USD.
As a result, that vehicle will sit on the dealers lot. Said Kelleher, no one is going to buy this truck because its price has just gone up by $20,000.
That might be an extreme case, but according to Kelly Blue Book, in a world with tariffs in place, vehicle prices would increase by anywhere from $3,000 to $10,000 USD. This varies from product to product - not everyone sees the same quantity of parts crossing the border as often during the production process. In some cases, components can cross the Canada-U.S. six times; one example is the raw aluminum used in pistons.
The price of car insurance is also set to rise, because when a repair is needed, the replacement part may have to cross the border.
All of this explains why many continue to believe theres much gamesmanship involved, and that an agreement will be reached. On the other, predictability is not a defining characteristic of the Trump Administration.